OpenAI Cuts Its Own Valuation Target by $150B as the AI Funding Frenzy Cools
Pricing power in AI infrastructure deals has shifted from sellers to buyers, so anyone negotiating GPU or data-center supply contracts has a better window than three months ago. That window may close once Anthropic prices its IPO, because a weak listing could drag down the whole private AI valuation anchor.
OpenAI's new financing round, up to $30 billion, is heading toward signing at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation. That is an 11 percent cut from the $1.4 trillion target Morgan Stanley and Dragoneer had been pitching to private wealth clients in late September. The markdown happened after subscription indications were already in hand and before formal signing, a sign that demand for AI mega-rounds cooled faster than the issuer expected. Existing shareholders will still see the post-money valuation rise to $1.55 trillion once the new money lands.
Coatue and a UAE sovereign fund are co-leading the round, with an accompanying commercial deal that gives OpenAI priority purchase rights for compute capacity from UAE partners. CFO Sarah Friar has positioned the round as a bridge to an IPO in 2027. OpenAI has told investors it expects roughly $600 billion in total compute spending by 2030, against annualized revenue still in the tens of billions. For AI infrastructure investors, the recommended move is to stress-test portfolios for a 30 to 40 percent capex cut, while watching secondary-market marks and the hard October 30 deadline as liquidity signals. Anthropic's planned mid-November IPO at a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation could reset the same anchor.
An 11 percent valuation cut after subscription indications are in hand is rare in mega-cap private rounds; it points to demand contraction rather than ordinary negotiation.
The UAE sovereign fund is effectively buying access to future compute supply as much as equity, since the round is tied to priority purchase rights for new data center capacity.
OpenAI's valuation story now depends on continuing to raise at higher expansion multiples to fund a $600 billion compute bill against tens of billions of revenue; this round's cut is the first sign that path is narrowing.
Anthropic's IPO will become the pricing anchor for the whole private AI market; if it prices weakly, OpenAI's bridge round could look like a down round after the fact.