Stronger AI, Fewer Jobs: The Half-Staff Economy Is Arriving Early

Recently many people have reported unemployment issues to me. Let's talk about it briefly today.

I'll say something harsh: as AI capabilities grow stronger, the short-term impact on job losses becomes more severe.

Actually, I mentioned this view in a livestream a few months ago, but at that time many people didn't care or didn't take it seriously. And in fact, it's already happening now.

The reason is simple: the global economic environment is already bad, and the stronger AI becomes, the more companies will gradually realize that for the same work, they don't need that many people. For most companies, halving the workforce might have no impact on operations and business.

Though it sounds harsh, this is the cruel reality.

Originally, according to economic cycle development patterns, it would be gradual, but the speed of AI development and evolution has accelerated the pace of this change.

So in the short term, the impact on job demand will be very severe. Don't ask me how short a period it is: half a year, one year, or two years. No one knows, no one can predict.

AI will definitely create new production relations and new job positions and output in the future, but it hasn't yet.

At least at the current stage, AI is mainly at the level of improving productivity, and this is also happening. And this efficiency improvement accompanies the improvement of AI capabilities.

Now AI is already very strong, so naturally more and more companies will realize that their little business doesn't need that many people.

How to respond?

I don't know. In the short term, I can't help everyone solve their job problems. I can only say that soon more and more companies will realize this, and the awakening of awareness will also be gradual.

If I were to give some suggestions, mine are the following:

1. For individuals: genuinely build up your fundamental AI capabilities, facing the future.

2. Prepare risk mitigation measures: if you do lose your job, at least ensure basic living security and reduce high consumption.

3. Abandon the industry experience and capabilities you previously relied on and were proud of, fully embrace the new work methods of the AI era, and try to become a multi-dimensional all-round talent. This is a basic requirement for future AI talents.

4. For companies: cost reduction and efficiency improvement is the biggest problem you face now; complete the AI reshaping of workflows and business as soon as possible.

If many people don't sense this and have no risk awareness, that's not important. This is facing the future.

Industry awareness awakening and enterprise workflow reshaping both take time. In any era, not everyone and not all industries can have relevant capabilities. This may be the best news for us. Within this time gap, what you decide to do and how far you can go depends on each person's specific actions.

That's all, personal opinion, shared with everyone.