Four Structural Reasons Most Developers Won't Cash In on the AI Boom
I came across a joke that struck a chord. When I was young, I said to my father: Your era was full of opportunities everywhere. Reform and opening up, going south to do business, being a middleman or opening a factory could make a fortune, housing prices were as low as a steal, opportunities were everywhere! In the AI era, I suddenly understand at this moment. It's not that the previous generation didn't work hard. It's that ordinary people simply can't seize the opportunities of the times.
Why most people can't benefit from the AI era
- You are a consumer of AI, not a creator. You only consume tokens, not create value.
Most people are consumers of AI. Calling ChatGPT, using AI to generate images, is essentially consuming the tokens of giants. Tokens are how they make money, and you even contribute data and optimization feedback as a user.
But in the process of Q&A, have you earned anything? Including the current 'crayfish' (referring to a specific tool/app), can you use it to make money?
- You don't understand business. It must be clear that it is Business + AI, not AI + Business.
Most people who have benefited were already business experts in a certain industry. They understand the pain points of users or where efficiency can be improved in their own work. They just need to combine business thinking with how AI can increase efficiency, innovate, and sell for specific businesses. That's it, rather than starting with AI and then daydreaming about specific scenarios!
- Your rank is not high enough. The AI transformation within enterprises won't reach the low-level soldiers. At least a small team leader or department head is needed to get a piece of this cake.
To put it bluntly, the cake is only so big, it won't flow to the bottom layer; the upper layers have already eaten it all. Moreover, why would a company share it with low-level soldiers? In the boss's eyes, a low-level soldier is just an 'Agent'. The principle of a boss paying for AI and paying to hire a person is the same. Otherwise, why is the 'one-person company' recently popular in tech?
- Do you have the courage to throw yourself into the AI industry? Using AI every day and chasing hot topics every day is not called throwing yourself in. Are you willing to give up a decent salary and company, and have the courage to jump out of the warm water? Just like 30 years ago, those among our parents' generation who had the guts to take out loans to open factories were already the best among people, with extraordinary courage and insight.
Perhaps In 20 years, my child will say to me: Your era was when gold prices skyrocketed, any random short video could go viral, livestream selling made money while you slept, developing an app was as easy as drinking water, and joining any random AI company could lead to an IPO and financial freedom.
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Top 8 of 14 from juejin.cn, machine-translated. The original thread is authoritative.
First, it's hard to earn money beyond your own understanding. For things we don't grasp, even if someone tells us doing this can make money, we might not believe it; even if we believe it, we might not know how; even if we know how, we might not do it well. Take livestream selling — is it that people don't want to? [facepalm] Second, you can't ignore survivorship bias. Even if the general direction is right and the trend is correct, it only means a higher probability of success, not that everyone will succeed. Who speaks up for those who failed 30 years ago? [shush] Third, you can't ignore the cost of trial and error. Everything involves both risk and opportunity. If the cost of trying is low enough, of course people will give it a shot — buying a 2-yuan lottery ticket, if you lose, you lose, anyone can try. But for a wage earner to take out a 20-million loan to start an AI company, how many dare to play that game? Yet if I had a few hundred million, what's wrong with gambling 20 million? Everyone's cost of trial and error is different, and the number of chances to try is different — you can't generalize. [lightbulb moment]
Though it's hard, you've got to try, otherwise you'll never turn your life around.
Tried opening a brick-and-mortar shop, lacked understanding, ended up with 300k in loans. Learned my lesson. [tears]
It's actually easy to understand. Think of the projects we develop as a house (real estate). You're just writing code (a bricklayer). You could build your own house and become a landlord, or directly contract projects and profit — those are like the people who cash in on the boom. But generally, you're just a worker.
So working for someone else is only temporary.
After all, no company wants older workers.
From now on, it's all one-person companies. Everything is about relationships and PR. Rely on connections to land projects, then hand them over to AI once you get them. In the future, China's baijiu culture and foot-massage culture economy will thrive even more. These are all lubricants for maintaining relationships. For the next generation, especially ordinary people, don't study technical stuff when choosing a college major — you can't beat AI. Everyone should study social skills. [look]
Indeed, in the AI era when technology is leveled, EQ becomes more important than IQ.
That's right. You think you're an AI user, but actually you're the target customer.
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Survivorship bias.
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